L F G
You feel it, right? That electric tension crackling in the air?
It's as if we're standing at the foot of a massive dam about to burst. Squint hard enough and you'll see Peter Schiff and Elizabeth Warren up top, frantically plugging holes in a desperate attempt to stop the inevitable.
Bitcoin is coiled, ready to explode. This is my favorite type of post to make. Pure, unadulterated bullishness. We about to go straight to the muthafuckin’ moon.
Alright, I don’t normally talk like that, but I did want to underscore the bullish sentiment I’m feeling. Sometimes you just need a little bit of moon juice, yeah?
I’ve made it clear that I’m not the most sophisticated person you might ever consume a piece of bitcoin content from. But, I do like to think that the thesis of “orange coin = good” continues to look correct and those positioning themselves with that thesis will be happy they did so.
I wouldn’t say I’m a “cycle-maximalist” per se, but as a mere human, my brain is wired to look for patterns in the world. And the 4 year cycle for bitcoin is a pretty damn compelling pattern, imo. I mean, come on:
If that chart doesn’t look like it’s going to repeat some version of a prior cycle, I don’t know what to tell you.
Plus, there is this wonderful concoction of recent bullish catalysts. 2025 is set to be an amazing year for bitcoin.
Some of the major ones:
ETF approvals in January 2024. These ETFs have been wildly successful, somewhat understandably so because it allows your neighborhood normie an easy avenue to buy some corn. These being available as a piece of the bitcoin infrastructure will make it incredibly easy for retail (or institutions) to FOMO in once euphoric sentiment takes hold.
Conquering of the ESG narrative. Bitcoin has won over BlackRock, which is the most important financial institution that had previously been on the ESG bandwagon. BlackRock is now marketing bitcoin, putting to bed the notion that bitcoin is bad for the environment which represents a major shift in the Overton window. Maybe bitcoin has AI to thank for soaking up the "consumes too much energy" attack surface, but there has been a lot of research put out there that bitcoin may not be as bad for the environment as previously thought (uses a lot of renewable energy and can more flexibly provide energy load at peak times.)
M2 expanding/Shift in the Fed from hawkish to dovish. As governments attempted to tamp down inflation, they sought to restrict the supply of money. With the U.S. probably realizing it's time to throw in the towel, they recently cut rates 50 basis points in September, and have signaled they will continue to do so, easing monetary policy. China has recently eased their monetary policy as well.
US election. Maybe it's because the halving cycle is always aligned with a US election which is why the price starts to pump around that time, but with either candidate, you're likely to get a slew of unpaid for promises, causing the US to further deficit spend which is a great reminder of the bitcoin value proposition. I think if Trump wins, it is likely better for the price of bitcoin in the short-term. But I think with either candidate, it doesn't really matter much in the end.
The MSTR infinite money glitch. This is truly a fascinating situation to watch unfold, as Microstrategy continues to execute its strategy of "accretive dilution" taking on debt and selling more shares to acquire more bitcoin. They are taking advantage of the existing financial system, borrowing at silly low rates in order to stack the best asset in the world. I don't know how this situation stops or slows down. It may take copycats jumping in and doing the same thing, not allowing Saylor to corner the market on these type of debt offerings, but that is something that helps MSTR and bitcoin. Kind of mind-blowing.
How high do we go this cycle? Obviously, I don't know. I am not a chart-maxi and while technical analysis seems helpful for some, I don't pretend to think it's the end-all-be-all. I think the conservative bull market price we are likely to see this cycle is around $180k. That figure is based on my super sophisticated framework of applying historical bull market returns discounted a bit for diminishing returns.
I do think things could get quite a bit more interesting than that this cycle though. The advent of the ETFs being approved allows more institutions an easy way to get exposure to the asset, and unlocks a massive amount of capital that has not been existent in previous cycles.
Who knows what type of affinity scams await this cycle, but the investment thesis for crypto assets outside of bitcoin seems to be cloudy at best. Since the merge, ETH is down 53% against bitcoin. The ETH ETFs haven't been nearly as successful as the bitcoin ETFs and the appetite amongst institutional investors doesn't seem to be nearly as strong for ETH as for bitcoin. It seems to be crystallizing in the minds of investors that bitcoin is a play for the future of money, the biggest total addressable market in the world and ETH is, well, something else. It's in competition with all the other shitcoins which are an attempt at beta on the price of bitcoin.
The success of the Microstrategy playbook is an interesting thread to keep an eye on this cycle. In bull markets, degens look to lever up, going out further on the risk curve to get beta on the price of bitcoin, seeking to outperform it. Hence the slew of affinity scam altcoins. The price of Microstrategy has so far been an excellent beta for the price of bitcoin ever since they adopted their bitcoin treasury reserve strategy, outperforming bitcoin with a return of 1,620% vs 426% for bitcoin.
As Michael Saylor says, "The only thing better than bitcoin is more bitcoin." This may resonate with investors looking to take on more risk, and the more capital Microstrategy sucks in, the better they are able to execute on their strategy of acquiring more bitcoin. This could be the beta play on bitcoin this cycle.
As a Microstrategy shareholder, this pleases me greatly. I hold MSTR in my 401(k) and IRAs and while I’ve put more money into bitcoin over the last five years, the dollar value of my MSTR holdings is approaching that of my bitcoin holdings.
As I look to offload some holdings this cycle to look at ways I can enhance my quality of life, this gives me some options. I previously thought I would be selling a small portion of my cold-stored bitcoin, but with the appreciation of MSTR and the potential of continued outperformance as the bull market progresses, it makes it a little easier to sell some MSTR to pay for my quality of life enhancements. There are some nasty tax consequences of tapping into funds I have in my IRA, but facing those are a little more appealing to me than tapping into my btc stack.
I think the symphony of bullish catalysts could propel bitcoin well past $180k this cycle. One of the more measured analysts I follow, Dr. Jeff Ross has a price target of $475k on 10/31/25. If that comes to fruition, I will be completely unbearable.
If we do see the price of bitcoin in the $300k -$500k range this cycle, I will strategically offload some bitcoin to strengthen my financial foundation and prepare for a drastic pullback in btc and MSTR. I will do that with the full knowledge of recognizing that might be the most MSTR/btc I will ever hold, which is a tradeoff I am ok with. The majority of my holdings will be kept for the long-term because if we see those prices this cycle, that puts us on a deterministic path to $1m by 2030 imo. There isn't a better asset in the world than bitcoin, and having the knowledge of that and continuing to DCA into it feels like a superpower.
2025 is going to be a lot of fun. Vibes will be high, and for the first time in my bitcoin journey, I plan on rewarding myself for my conviction. Bitcoin is scarce, but time is the most scarce asset we have. I hope to make the most of it.